The poll was conducted by ABC and the BBC, and then "reported" by AP. I say "reported" because I don't believe the headline and subsequent "analysis" represents the situation comprehensively.
The number of people who think the country is on the right track has dropped 22 points — to 55 percent — in the last year...
OK, "on the right track" to what? What percentage of respondents were optimistic with regard to the question of getting on the right track?
Optimism had declined on a variety of fronts compared with a year earlier: a 17-point drop in the belief that security has improved since the Taliban was in charge of the country to 58 percent; a 13-point drop in the belief that life in Afghanistan will get better in the next year, to 54 percent; and a 15-point drop in the job approval rating of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, to 68 percent.
That approval level would be welcomed by most politicians in the United States.
There are four elements in the two paragraphs cited above. First, a drop in the belief that security has improved. Fair enough, we're all aware of the increase in violence there. Were respondents confident in the government's and NATO's ability to clamp down on it? There's no information presented about population's prediction with regard to future events, only on past events and the present situation.
Second, a drop in the belief that life in Afghanistan will get better in a year. "Life"? For everyone? For the respondents family? For the respondent? Economic life? Social life? Quality of life? What factors are most important? But, at least this question deals with the future.
Third, the job approval of Hamid Karzai. Well, quite a number of factors affect that number as well all know.
Fourth, and finally, the gratuitous dig at western leaders by the anonymous authors.
Then we get to the zinger:
Most in Afghanistan still think the U.S.-led invasion five years ago had positive effects on their country. Almost nine in 10 call the invasion a good thing for their country. Three-fourths have a favorable opinion of the United States and almost nine in 10 prefer the current government to the Taliban.
Most in Afghanistan? Why don't they quantify that more precisely as they did with the previous questions? Because it doesn't fit with the headline??
With the rest though, they completely miss the larger point. For example, Three-fourths [are willing to admit to a stranger that they] have a favorable opinion of the United States and almost nine in 10 prefer the current government to the Taliban [without fear of reprisal].
No reason for optimism there.
EDIT: 12/19/2006 Gateway Pundit is writing about a newer poll in Afghanistan.
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