Sunday, February 25, 2007

Interesting Statistics

Another Grim Milestone...

US losses in Iraq and Afghanistan today (3525) are approaching the half way mark (3750) of the military losses during the Clinton years.

It's quite an expansive post with sources and history. Very worthwhile.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

What? No Outrage from the Editors?

John Burns, foreign correpondent for the NYT, offers his opinion on Iraq.



And my guess is that history will say that the forces that we liberated by invading Iraq were so powerful and so uncontrollable that virtually nothing the United States might have done, except to impose its own repressive state with half a million troops, which might have had to last ten years or more, nothing we could have done would have effectively prevented this disintegration that is now occurring.

No outrage from the editors at the NYT??? I mean, sure, he didn't say the US could win but, he didn't Blame Bush.

Previously: Post-Pretense

Monday, February 05, 2007

NY Post: A Ban on 'Victory'

What timing: NY Post - A Ban on 'Victory'



Consider correspondent Chris Hedges' infamous 2003 commencement address at Rockford College, where he charged that Americans were becoming "tyrants to others weaker than ourselves," and linked Bush to Vladimir Putin and Ariel Sharon - whom he said were "carrying out acts of gratuitous and senseless violence."

Nor, as the Web site Timeswatch.org points out, was there any reprimand of correspondent Neil McFarquhar, who last summer also appeared on Charlie Rose's show and at tacked the Bush administration for "rush ing bombs to this part of the world."

"It just erodes and erodes and erodes America's reputation," said McFarquhar - who, unlike Gordon, did not even offer the disclaimer that his was "a purely personal view."

From the Times, silence.

Sigh

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Post-Pretense

Some of us have, apparently, moved beyond the pretense of supporting the troops but not the mission.

William Arkin (via his WaPo blog):
The Troops Also Need to Support the American People
The Arrogant and Intolerant Speak Out
A Note to My Readers on Supporting the Troops

Arkin, the Greenpeace activist turned Military affairs correspondent claims, among many other things, troops receive "obscene amenities", are mercenaries, and owe us. Anybody who disagrees with him is apparently arrogant and intolerant. And now, in his last post, he didn't really mean it we're to believe.

But others, like Kos, buy it "lock, stock, and barrel" so-to-speak.
Arkin Was Right - We Do Have a Mercenary Army and They Do Owe Us!

Interestingly, with Arkin expressing what is clearly a personal view...one has to wonder what the folks at WaPo think about all this. Especially in light of recent events over at the NYT regarding Michael Gordon. What that about? Michael Gordon was asked for his opinion. Unlike William Arkin.


Drawing a Line

Times editors have carefully made clear their disapproval of the expression of a personal opinion about Iraq on national television by the paper’s chief military correspondent, Michael Gordon.

The rumored military buildup in Iraq was a hot topic on the Jan. 8 “Charlie Rose” show, and the host asked Mr. Gordon if he believed “victory is within our grasp.” The transcript of Mr. Gordon’s response, which he stressed was “purely personal,” includes these comments:

“So I think, you know, as a purely personal view, I think it’s worth it [sic] one last effort for sure to try to get this right, because my personal view is we’ve never really tried to win. We’ve simply been managing our way to defeat. And I think that if it’s done right, I think that there is the chance to accomplish something.”

I raised reader concerns about Mr. Gordon’s voicing of personal opinions with top editors, and received a response from Philip Taubman, the Washington bureau chief. After noting that Mr. Gordon has “long been mindful and respectful of the line between analysis and opinion in his television appearances,” Mr. Taubman went on to draw the line in this case.

“I would agree with you that he stepped over the line on the ‘Charlie Rose’ show. I have discussed the appearances with Michael and I am satisfied that the comments on the Rose show were an aberration. They were a poorly worded shorthand for some analytical points about the military and political situation in Baghdad that Michael has made in the newspaper in a more nuanced and unopinionated way. He agrees his comments on the show went too far.”

It’s a line drawn correctly by Mr. Taubman — and accepted honorably by Mr. Gordon

I haven't seen anything in the NYT from Gordon since this. Disturbing to say the least.

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

random death?

Bin Laden's brother-in-law was killed the other day in a supposed robbery/murder. Uh huh.

Bill Roggio has some detailed information on the man's background. Describing him as 'bin Landen's brother-in-law' is entirely innaccurate. More like 'ranking financial and operational Al Qaeda member'.

Along with all the detailed information Mr. Roggio drops a name, Task Force 145. He also highlights the fact that all of Mr. Khalifa's belongings, including his laptop, were taken.

And after detailing the failed attempts to imprison Mr. Khalifa in 3 countries, Bill R. concludes by stating, simply, "Khalifa cannot escape the grave."

A random death?

Monday, January 29, 2007

Basic Truths

With President Bush announcing 21,500 additional troops being sent to Iraq in a bid to quell violence in Baghdad emotions on both sides of the argument as to whether or not this is a good idea have run high.

In a piece in the Washington Post today Stephen Hadley speaks a basic truth:


The Baker-Hamilton report explained that failure in Iraq could have severe consequences for our national interests in a critical region and for our national security here at home.

For example, for the Arab Mujahideen, led by Bin Laden, who fought the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, their victory was of monumental importance in terms of legitimacy, recruiting, obtaining funding and, other forms of immaterial support. Further, when the USSR began its collaps about a year later, it lent further support to the Arab Mujahideen narrative. Not only did they, with Allah's help, repel the infidel invader, this led, directly, to the collapse of the atheist communist state.

This narrative drives much of Al Qaeda's ideology today.

Additionally, Mr. Hadley states another basic truth:


It [the ISG] said: "We could, however, support a short-term redeployment or surge of American combat forces to stabilize Baghdad . . . if the U.S. commander in Iraq determines that such steps would be effective." Our military commanders, and the president, have determined just that.

The President's new strategy is in accordance with views espoused by the much touted ISG.

Nevertheless, The US Senate, following the lead of some of majority members, has been harranging about a non-binding resolution opposing the strategy. A strategy which, according to the author of the Army/Marine counter-insrugency manual, contributor to the ISG report, and new commander of MNF-Iraq, requires the additional troops to succeed and is undermined by the resolution which would, in Gen. Petraeus' words, "give the enemy some comfort". Gen. Petraeus, was also unanimously confirmed by the same Senate.

Go Figure.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

From under a rock

It's not all that often that Dick Cheney comes out and speaks about something. So, when he does, the subject is likely important and, what he says is probably worth listening to. The question is, is he right?

Cheney says critics of new US Iraq plan play into hands of Bin Laden (AFP - 14/01/2007)


WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Vice-President Dick Cheney accused critics of the administration's new strategy in Iraq of playing into the hands of Osama bin Laden and global terrorism.

Oh my, this is going to be a fun article.


Cheney said withdrawing forces from Iraq rather than the troop "surge" announced this week by President George W. Bush would be "the most dangerous blunder" possible.

Hmm. Well, that doesn't seem to be something one could agree with on face value. But, that's just his assertion, he still needs to back it up. And he better.


"They are convinced that the current debate in the Congress, that the election campaign last fall, all of that is evidence that they're right when they say the United States doesn't have the stomach for the fight in this war against terror," he said.

"Bin Laden doesn't think he can beat us. He believes he can force us to quit," Cheney said, citing US military setbacks in Lebanon and Somalia that led to US withdrawals from those countries.

"He believes after Lebanon and Somalia, the United States doesn't have the stomach for a long war and Iraq is the current central battlefield in that war, and it's essential we win there and we will win there," he said.

"They're convinced that the United States will, in fact, pack it in and go home if they just kill enough of us," he said.

In this point, according to many analysts and authors Cheney is 100% correct. For example, Michael Scheuer (wikipedia). In his works, Scheuer documents, using Bin Laden's own words, how he sees the U.S. as a paper tiger or, a weak horse. Scheuer also shows how Bin Laden is attempting to portray himself as the strong horse to attract supporters.

So, by looking at the issue of how the conflict in Iraq is resolved from the perspective of the Al Qaeda narrative, Dick Cheney would appear to be spot on.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

James Woolsey for...

President! Or, Secretary of State! Or, Director of National Intelligence or, something useful! I've read some of James Woolsey's public writing (on the state of the world, and on oil) and that prompted me to watch meeting of the House Committee for Foreign Affairs (January 11, 2007, Next Steps in the Iran Crisis) on C-SPAN yesterday during which he testified.

In his prepared statement he provides the committee members with the type of analysis that our brilliant media could never bring itself to do:


The regime’s threats to destroy Israel and, on a longer time-scale, the United States are part and parcel of its essence. Recent official statements to this effect represent not a shift in policy – Iran’s regime has defined itself by its fundamental hostility to the West, and especially Israel and the US, for nearly three decades (“Great Satan” etc.) – but rather a greater degree of public and explicit candor.

This fundamental hostility is now seasoned by a more pointed expression of the views of the circle of fanatic believers around Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi in Qum, including Ahmadinejad himself. This group expressly promotes the idea that large-scale killing should be welcomed because it will summon the return of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi, which in turn will lead to the end of the world. Recently the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting web site has begun to assert that the world is in its “last days” and that, as the world ends, Jesus will appear with the Mahdi, as a Shi’ite and as his lieutenant. This rhetoric is not limited to a small circle. Rafsanjani, e.g., has utilized it as well. To us, of course, it sounds bizarre – but we ignore such ideology at our peril. As Enders Wimbush points out in the current Weekly Standard “Iran’s leadership has spoken of its willingness – in their words – to “martyr” the entire Iranian nation, and it has even expressed he desirability of doing so as a way to accelerate an inevitable, apocalyptic collision between Islam and the West . . . .” Those in decision-making roles in the Iranian regime who believe such things are certainly not going to be very inclined to negotiate in good faith with us about Iraq, their nuclear program, or indeed anything at all. Even deterrence is questionable, much less arms control agreements.

I can't find a record of the question and answer that followed just yet. One member rattled off a litany of grievances worthy of Michael Moore against American policy toward Iran and wondered, "why shouldn't they distrust us? hate us?"

Mr. Woolsey replied that the Iranian leadership does not want to destroy us because of what we've done wrong but, because of what we've done right. He attributes this insight to a conversation with a DC cab driver just after 9/11. In otherwords, our affront to their ideology. It wouldn't matter what we'd done in the past, the end result would not differ. Thanks a bunch Jimmy!

In general, he advocates a policy of non-violent regime change modeled on Cold War efforts in Eastern Europe. This seems like they type of policy everyone could get behind.

Later, he addressed the role of oil in international [in]security (an issue he speaks to at length in the article I link to above).


And finally, by moving toward technology that can reduce substantially the role of oil in our own economy and that of the world’s other oil-importing states, we can help deprive oil exporters – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, and others – of much of their leverage in international affairs. As Tom Friedman of the NY Times puts it, the price of oil and the path of freedom run in opposite directions. The attached op-ed piece of mine, published in the Wall Street Journal December 30, notes the possibility of plug-in hybrid vehicles soon making it possible for consumers to get around 500 miles per gallon of gasoline (since almost all propulsion would come from much less expensive electricity and renewable fuels, the latter mixed with only 15 per cent gasoline). This may seem an extraordinary number. But when General Motors last Sunday joined Toyota in the plug-in hybrid race to market and unveiled its new Chevrolet Volt, one of its executives used a figure of 525 miles per (gasoline) gallon. Five hundred and twenty-five miles per (gasoline) gallon should give Minister Nejad-Hosseinian and his colleagues a bracing degree of concern.

Surely everyone can get behind this type of policy as well.

James Woolsey for President! Or, Secretary of State! Or, Director of National Intelligence or, something useful!

Friday, January 12, 2007

Terribly Misguided

More crazy protesters courtesy of zombietime. This time via Little Green Footballs: Anti-War Antisemitic Moonbats Take to the Streets



IMG_1729

On the face of it, this poster seems represent a legitimate criticism of President Bush sitting in the Oval Office ordering American troops into Baghdad to fight insurgents and terrorists. If he's so eager to defeat them, let him do some of the fighting.

However, if you think about it...

The sign seems to blur the line between a civilian leader and a member of the military. Civilian control of the military is a critical component of any liberal democracy (which includes our form of government):



A state's effective monopoly of force is an issue of great concern for all national leaders, who must rely on the military to supply this aspect of their authority. The danger of granting military leaders full autonomy or sovereignty is that they may ignore or supplant the democratic decision-making process, and use physical force, or the threat of physical force, to achieve their preferred outcomes; in the worse cases, this may lead to a coup or military dictatorship. A related danger is the use of the military to crush domestic political opposition through intimidation or sheer physical force, interfering with the ability to have free and fair elections, a key part of the democratic process.

Even beyond the high-minded doctrinal discussion, there's a much more practical one that speaks to the issue of moral equivalence and legitimacy. I don't want to get too far into that because it's a tad off topic but, when's the last time you saw the US Military conducting a parade carrying a poster of Bush? Or, any current or former president, civilian leader, or general? Now, for example, how about the Iranian military? Or, Hezbollah?

This is not an insignificant point.

Another possibility is that the protester is merely so opposed to the policy that he wants to force President Bush to personally implement it in place of others. Afterall, we know that at least some, particularly Democrats, favor a draft. Forcing political prisoners opponents to engage in warfare on behalf of the state is not new. Especially on the left. You should read up on the history of penal military units that drew many of their ranks from the pool of gulag inmates. You should note, in particular:


While these camps housed criminals of all types, the Gulag system has become primarily known as a place for political prisoners and as a mechanism for repressing political opposition to the Soviet state.

So, to me, that sign and the sentiment behind it, represents something to be actively resisted. It is far from democratic in thinking. Especially so when compared to today's civilian led all-volunteer force.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Beach Impeach

Courtesy of the indomitable Zombietime (http://www.zombietime.com), a recap, of sorts, of a protest, of sorts, in San Francisco recently.

Note: All images are courtesy of http://www.zombietime.com and have been reproduced here for bandwidth purposes only (so as not to hijack zombietime's bandwidth)



Some very interesting people were in attendance sporting some very uh, special hats.









From Wikipedia, on the subject of tin-foil hats:


Such hats are very uncommon in mainstream society, as the injuries they might guard against are highly speculative, and their effectiveness in preventing such harm would be dubious even if the danger were plausible. Instead, the concept has become a popular stereotype and term of derision; the phrase serves as a byword for paranoia and is associated with conspiracy theorists

For a more in-depth analysis of tin-foil hats refer to http://zapatopi.net/afdb/ under the subject of the Aluminum Foil Deflector Beanie.

International Perspective

A view from the UK on President Bush's plan for Iraq and 'the media' response.

Whatever else you might say about Bush, there can be absolutely no doubt that he - and the bulk of the American people - are genuine in their desire to see democracy functioning in Iraq – and the rest of the Middle East, for that matter.

You really do have to wonder why it is, therefore, that such a noble objective should have the left-wing media – typified by our own Guardian - spitting with rage at the prospect the United States taking what might be decisive action against the terrorists who would see anarchy, misery and death.

You can read the whole thing here. The author continues on to tell us:



The proximate reason for the newspaper's ire, of course, is that - in opting for a troop surge - Bush has "ignored the message of the mid-term elections" and the Guardian's Democrat (i.e., left-wing) chums. Bush, it screeches, "has also ignored the Iraq Study Group, Congress, his own top generals" and, horror of horrors, "most world opinion".

There you have it people. A US president, leader of the most prosperous and dynamic country in the world, a country which has achieved its status by driving its own agenda - is not listening to the opinion of the people who neither elected him nor pay US taxes. Now isn't that a bummer!

Now, between you and me, a lot of people "over here", that is, the 10 sq miles surrounded by reality that is Ithaca, NY would say, that's right, we didn't elect him. Remember those bumper stickers? "Don't elect him in 2004 either!"? Drivel.

But those folks aren't objective enough to see his point. I hope some of you reading here are and will read the rest of it here: EU Referendum - Both can't be wrong.

Sunday, January 07, 2007

No Sineman, Ithaca Journal

Sineman is still on hiatus and my attention has been drawn to a recent opinion letter in the Ithaca Journal. I think reproducing it here falls under Fair Use.

My purpose is criticism and comment. This blog is non-commercial. I will reproduce the letter in its entirety (sans the author's identity) but, it was published in the weekend edition and it's currently 6:43 PM on Sunday. My reproducing the letter at this date and time will not affect sales of the Ithaca Journal. As to the internet aspect of the letter, I certainly won't reduce traffic to the Journal website. If anything, and if I actually had readers, I would increase traffic to the site thereby increasing revenue for the Journal.

I think I'm safe from any legal action under copyright law.

The letter is titled "Bush's 'holy' laurels" (bold is my emphasis)

A caller to C-SPAN wondered why we don't use overwhelming force in Iraq as Japan and Germany were submissive to our will after Hiroshima and Dresden.

Talk about comparing apples and oranges! Japan and Germany attacked others. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 yet has lost three quarter of a million of its citizens to post-invasion violence while another two million have given up homes and careers to seek safety in other countries.

When asked how he felt after the election Bush said he felt like Noah in the flood. Noah! The rescuer of life on earth! Bush indeed feels he is the apple of God's eye and it is his business to bring about the End Times, so a profane thing like an election is unlikely to sway him. He says he is listening to critics, but their words follow a direct path into his ears and then out. Why ponder, debate and analyze our dilemma when you can rest on your holy laurels?

The next two years will be a true test of the separation of power and the will of the people as Bush digs in his heels and the Democrats and the voters who gave them their slim majority endeavor to confront his unchanged course hiding behind changed rhetoric.

Ok. It is true that Japan and Germany attacked others. The insinuation is apparently that Iraq, under Saddam, did not. Remember now, Iraq, under Saddam, invaded Iran. Invaded Kuwait. Gassed Kurds. And slaughtered Shiites.

Given the US history of intervention around the world, each of those four instances is justification enough. Taken together?

750,000 dead. 655,000 dead according to the study published in the Lancet in 2006 right? It was 100,000 by the same researchers in 2004. In 2004, according to the United Nations, it was 18,187-29,299 (page 54 of the Analytical Report).

In the 2006 Johns Hopkins study 1,800 households were studied. In the UN report, 21,000+ were studied. A bit of a difference eh?

Also, from the UN report:
The question asked in ILCS was formulated and posed
in a relatively standard way typical to large surveys
and censuses (UN 1983). The question underestimates
deaths, because households in which all members
were lost are omitted. It is therefore common within
demographic studies to use a correction for this,
based on a number of assumptions derived from
stable population theory (UN 1983). This has not been
attempted here, as it is unlikely that the assumptions
are satisfied. It is not common to make this correction
in epidemiologically oriented studies, and this was
not done in the Roberts et al. study.

In other words, Roberts et al. made assumptions that the UN thought unwise and made "corrections" that the UN didn't. To be fair, this was in 2004. I'm sure things were different in 2006 (rolleyes).

The remainder of the letter mocks President Bush's faith. Have fun with that. Don't try it in say...Iraq.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Reading: An Essential Skill

I recently read: Disinformation : 22 Media Myths That Undermine the War on Terror

A fascinating book dealing with "myths" which include, for example, The world is a more dangerous place after 9/11. And, Halliburton made a ton of money in Iraq.

Also, regarding a book I read a while ago (America Alone by Mark Steyn), Europe's End: Not with Bang but a Whimper (via American Thinker).

Mark Steyn's recent best seller, America Alone is a gloomy book on Europe's future. By Europe, Mr. Steyn means primarily what Donald Rumsfeld once referred to contemptuously as "Old Europe." In a variation of the prime cliché of the 1992 Clinton campaign, Mr. Steyn's chief premise is that "It's the demographics, stupid." He cites in great and grave detail the comparison of the plummeting European birth rate and the prodigious birth rate of Muslims who now live in Europe. In some parts of Europe "Mohammad" is among the most popular names for newborns...

As Robert Kagan pointed out in his 2002 Policy Review article "Policy and Weakness," Europeans have convinced themselves that they live in an ideal Kantian world. This is a fantasy where all contentious issues in the world are resolved as if at a New England town meeting where citizens decide the location of the bike path...